DIE HARD III / Herman Tiu Laurel / May 21, 2014 / Daily Tribune
Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in China May 20 for a historic meeting with President Xi JingPing, Russia’s own “Asia Pivot,” a positive and more tangible one historically than the US whimper in Obama’s visit last month. Russia and China will sign the “Holy Grail” Russian gas supply to China of 32/bcm (billion cubic meter) per year for 30 years, equivalent to 30 percent of Russia’s supply to Europe per annum. US and Nato threats of boycotting Russian energy supply can only elicit laughs now. The deal will be made in Rouble and Yuan, shunning the use of the US dollar. Beyond this, Russia will similarly deal with India and other nations of the East.
The icing for China is a go-signal from Putin for the sale of S-400 anti-aircraft system to China. The S-400 can detect and track 37 targets simultaneously 600-km distance and hit targets 400 kms away. The deals will be a major wallop to US power and prestige over the world’s geopolitical situation, another tectonic tremor toward the collapse of the violent Pax Americana’s reign across the globe, and the dawn of multi-polar global harmony. It is in this light that Asia must see the tempests in areas of the China Sea currently roiling waters between China and Vietnam, and to a lesser degree with the Philippines.
China reckons its claim where it sent its oil rig in the Xisha islands where it has historical claims. Vietnam reckons it from its nearest shore where its EEZ, or Exclusive Economic Zone emanates. Both are valid and that’s the problem. Despite the violent civilian Vietnamese actions causing two Chinese deaths, three thousand evacuees, another thousand fleeing via Cambodian border exits and a continuing stand-off around the oil rig, the window for dialog is not closed. Hard bargaining lies ahead and both countries are tough players. China is moving troops to Vietnam’s border and the latter will not budge from the disputed oil rig area.
Vietnam arrested 1,400 violent protesters and Vietnam News reports “China, Viet Nam FMs hold phone talks on E. Sea issue.” The US scores points rapping China and dishing disinformation, like New York Times reporting 21 Chinese killed. Philip Bowring in South China Morning Post misleadingly writes “… it (China) has now succeeded in shifting Indonesia from a position of trying to act as a moderator …to opponent.” But the Jakarta Globe on May 15 reported that Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa had been communicating with both the Chinese and Vietnamese and added that Indonesia would continue with efforts to mediate the conflict.
The report cites Indonesian foreign affairs expert Teuku Rezasyah calling on Indonesia to mediate the conflict and warning “… the US may get involved because it has a base in Darwin (Australia)… We cannot rely on Malaysia or the Philippines to mediate because they have their own interests in the South China Sea, and so does America (with its opposition to China)… I hope Indonesia can get involved with shuttle diplomacy. As a senior member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Indonesia can talk face-to-face with China.”
While the US takes advantage of tensions, it hankers for Chinese investments. New York Post’s Diane Francis asks US policy makers, “Why are we letting China buy American companies?” Filipino commentators doubt the US “ironclad” security guarantees to the Philippine because the US is afraid of its $3-trillion debt to China. These financial fears are simplistic. The US has reneged on its debt (last time 1971 by Nixon), and time and again it has used war to resolve such problems. It will try again with China. What the US fears now is its not being prepared against its ultimate target, China; it tries to buy time while expanding US bases — in the Philippines, Japan, Jeju Island in South Korea and in Australia.
We can only speculate on what China’s reclamation at the Spratly’s Johnson or Mabini Reef is for, but we surmise that China is moving to expand its perimeter defense too; before the time the US completes its transfer of 60 percent of its military forces to Asia by 2020. China cannot allow the inevitable use of a US ally in the China Sea rim to stop it from setting up its defense position. The US EDCA with the Philippines and 2,500 troops, radar and missiles sites Australia — all point to the “Offshore Control” strategic doctrine, proposed by US Marine (retired) Col. T.X. Hammes to cut China’s oil supply routes through the China Sea.
Last May 18, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph wrote, “China steps up speed of oil stockpiling … an unprecedented’ build up of oil reserves as West prepares for possible oil sanctions against Russia.” Raging currents set off from the faraway black Sea churning up the China Sea.
(Tune to 1098AM, Tuesday to Friday 5 to 6 p.m. “Sulo,” watch GNN TNT with HTL on Destiny Cable channel 8 and Skycable channel 213 Saturday 8 p.m. and Sunday 8 a.m., www.gnntv.asia.com or YouTube “Talk News TV (and date)”; visit www.thenewkatipunero.blogspot.com)
Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in China May 20 for a historic meeting with President Xi JingPing, Russia’s own “Asia Pivot,” a positive and more tangible one historically than the US whimper in Obama’s visit last month. Russia and China will sign the “Holy Grail” Russian gas supply to China of 32/bcm (billion cubic meter) per year for 30 years, equivalent to 30 percent of Russia’s supply to Europe per annum. US and Nato threats of boycotting Russian energy supply can only elicit laughs now. The deal will be made in Rouble and Yuan, shunning the use of the US dollar. Beyond this, Russia will similarly deal with India and other nations of the East.
The icing for China is a go-signal from Putin for the sale of S-400 anti-aircraft system to China. The S-400 can detect and track 37 targets simultaneously 600-km distance and hit targets 400 kms away. The deals will be a major wallop to US power and prestige over the world’s geopolitical situation, another tectonic tremor toward the collapse of the violent Pax Americana’s reign across the globe, and the dawn of multi-polar global harmony. It is in this light that Asia must see the tempests in areas of the China Sea currently roiling waters between China and Vietnam, and to a lesser degree with the Philippines.
China reckons its claim where it sent its oil rig in the Xisha islands where it has historical claims. Vietnam reckons it from its nearest shore where its EEZ, or Exclusive Economic Zone emanates. Both are valid and that’s the problem. Despite the violent civilian Vietnamese actions causing two Chinese deaths, three thousand evacuees, another thousand fleeing via Cambodian border exits and a continuing stand-off around the oil rig, the window for dialog is not closed. Hard bargaining lies ahead and both countries are tough players. China is moving troops to Vietnam’s border and the latter will not budge from the disputed oil rig area.
Vietnam arrested 1,400 violent protesters and Vietnam News reports “China, Viet Nam FMs hold phone talks on E. Sea issue.” The US scores points rapping China and dishing disinformation, like New York Times reporting 21 Chinese killed. Philip Bowring in South China Morning Post misleadingly writes “… it (China) has now succeeded in shifting Indonesia from a position of trying to act as a moderator …to opponent.” But the Jakarta Globe on May 15 reported that Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa had been communicating with both the Chinese and Vietnamese and added that Indonesia would continue with efforts to mediate the conflict.
The report cites Indonesian foreign affairs expert Teuku Rezasyah calling on Indonesia to mediate the conflict and warning “… the US may get involved because it has a base in Darwin (Australia)… We cannot rely on Malaysia or the Philippines to mediate because they have their own interests in the South China Sea, and so does America (with its opposition to China)… I hope Indonesia can get involved with shuttle diplomacy. As a senior member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Indonesia can talk face-to-face with China.”
While the US takes advantage of tensions, it hankers for Chinese investments. New York Post’s Diane Francis asks US policy makers, “Why are we letting China buy American companies?” Filipino commentators doubt the US “ironclad” security guarantees to the Philippine because the US is afraid of its $3-trillion debt to China. These financial fears are simplistic. The US has reneged on its debt (last time 1971 by Nixon), and time and again it has used war to resolve such problems. It will try again with China. What the US fears now is its not being prepared against its ultimate target, China; it tries to buy time while expanding US bases — in the Philippines, Japan, Jeju Island in South Korea and in Australia.
We can only speculate on what China’s reclamation at the Spratly’s Johnson or Mabini Reef is for, but we surmise that China is moving to expand its perimeter defense too; before the time the US completes its transfer of 60 percent of its military forces to Asia by 2020. China cannot allow the inevitable use of a US ally in the China Sea rim to stop it from setting up its defense position. The US EDCA with the Philippines and 2,500 troops, radar and missiles sites Australia — all point to the “Offshore Control” strategic doctrine, proposed by US Marine (retired) Col. T.X. Hammes to cut China’s oil supply routes through the China Sea.
Last May 18, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph wrote, “China steps up speed of oil stockpiling … an unprecedented’ build up of oil reserves as West prepares for possible oil sanctions against Russia.” Raging currents set off from the faraway black Sea churning up the China Sea.
(Tune to 1098AM, Tuesday to Friday 5 to 6 p.m. “Sulo,” watch GNN TNT with HTL on Destiny Cable channel 8 and Skycable channel 213 Saturday 8 p.m. and Sunday 8 a.m., www.gnntv.asia.com or YouTube “Talk News TV (and date)”; visit www.thenewkatipunero.blogspot.com)
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