DIE HARD III
Herman Tiu Laurel
12/3/2012
Every Philippine government administration finds ways to boast of "growth" every year, but every year the people's economic crisis grows. Government economic indicators don't help; for example, it doesn't matter whether the peso devalues or revalues: fuel, power, water and prices continue to go up, purchasing power shrinks. Unemployment outpaces the growing work force despite narrowing of the definitions of "employed," and poverty grows despite components of the "food basket" for the Consumer Price Index lowered. Over the years 10 fruits have been removed from it, as well as Baguio beans, carrots, sitsaro, green native papaya and cucumber, children's milk for breakfast, and any extra separate viand of fish or meat and fruit dessert beyond once a day.
Just before this latest announcement of the rosy statistics a major survey firm released its May assessment headlined "Record-high unemployment at 13 million jobless — 34.4 percent of Filipinos aged 18 years old and above were unemployed or approximately 13.8 million individuals." Surprisingly the same survey firm a month later changed that to 26.6 percent to 10.9 million unemployed, but it's a far cry from what the NSCB claims at 7 percent unemployment or 2.8 million in its accompanying news to the 7.1 percent growth. The Ibon Foundation economic think tank puts actual unemployed, including those left out by government definition (i.e. those who have found jobs after two years and gave up) at 4.6 million based on the old definition. What's not doubted is the underemployed, those semi-employed but still look for more work; they grew by 3.6 percent adding 1.5 million to the underemployed now at 8.5 million.
A total of 13.2 million Filipinos were either jobless of underemployed. The "jobless growth" has turned into a "joblessness growth." The definition of "underemployed" includes non-paid family members, like children threading sampaguita garlands and, maybe, hawking them in the streets. Ibon data show Asean unemployment figures: Philippines 7 percent, Singapore 2 percent, Thailand 0.9 percent, Lao PDR 1.4 percent, Cambodia 1.7 percent, Brunei 2.6 percent, Malaysia 3 percent, Indonesia 6.5 percent, Myanmar 4 percent. The Philippine's jobs crisis is at the bottom of the pervasive hunger and poverty situation of the country, and Aquino's contribution, as a report described: "When Aquino became president on June 2010, unemployment was 20.5 percent. In May 2012, unemployment was reported by the SWS to be 26.6 percent. Unemployment worsened, by 6.1 percentage points."
Growth requires confidence in the economy. One expression of this is the FDI (foreign direct investment), not to be confused with "portfolio investment" or "hot money" that emanates from the cheap US dollar or Yen (both zero interest at home) parking in the economy to gain short term benefits or even speculate against it for quick profit. The true picture can be seen in the FDI comparison: In 2011 the Philippines with 96 million population and Cambodia with 14 million tied for last place in the FDI derby at $800 million each, as FDI shies away from "Asia's Highest Power Cost." Up to June 2012 the Philippines got $850-million FDI, while Vietnam had $2.5 billion, Indonesia $5.6 billion, Malaysia $2.3billion, and Thailand $7.3 billion, and as of latest available data Cambodia had $815 million. Over the decades companies like Intel, Procter and Gamble, Ford, etc. have left the country for other Asean and Asian climes.
The growth in the 3rd quarter economic figures is really in the whopping 24 percent growth in construction and 7.5 percent in consumption (pushed with credit cards "buy now pay in 2013" promos) reflected in the wholesale and retail service sector. Even without adjusting proportionally to other factors it is evident these are the major floaters. The obvious private sector construction is in the condominium building race that's changing the Metro Manila skyline, though government construction is also apace. These construction activities, however, do not contribute to direct increase of economic productivity and durable jobs generation. Especially so, when the condo market is hot because of cheap dollars buying up the high end condos, while the rest go to OFWs. Consumption is self explanatory, and akin to an illness; a cancer, eating away national resources and creating a permanent "Black Friday" (the sale mania in the US) mentality, without producing jobs either.
(Watch GNN's HTL show, GNN Channel 8, Saturdays, 8:15 to 9 p.m., 11:15 p.m. and Sunday 8 a.m., and over www.gnntv-asia.com: "Retrogressive Economic Growth" with Ibon E.D. Sonny Africa and KME economist Hiro Vaswani; tune to 1098AM radio Tuesday to Friday 5 to 6 p.m. http://newkatipunan.blogspot.com)
