Monday, February 18, 2013

20 kiloton message

DIE HARD III
Herman Tiu Laurel
2/18/2013



The recent meteor explosion over the Urals in Russia was equivalent to 20 Hiroshima bombs. It was extremely fortunate that not a single fatality was suffered in the incident, even though 1,200 were injured and treated for mainly low level injuries from shards of shattered window panes miles away from the blast. A crater six meters wide by a meteor estimated to be 7,000 tons and 15 meters in size was reported. Videos of the resulting smoke trail captured the moment the meteor flashed and blinded the cameras momentarily. Not more than 24 hours later, another reported meteor explosion was recorded over the Cuban central province of Cienfuegos, an area aptly named for such an event (a hundred fires). That suspected meteor blast shook houses in a wide area too.

I found these events fascinating, as I have been a science aficionado all my life. There were periods in my youth when I was so immersed in all the sci-fi and tru-sci magazines, paperbacks and hard bound books that I had a number of astronomical telescopes. I subsequently had one for my two elder children just as they were entering their "tweens," just as I had another one for my twins 13 years later. I have seen the rings of Saturn on my telescopes, same with, of course, the craters of the moon. I still regularly step out of my room after midnight to peer up the sky from our little balcony to watch Orion transit across our little share of the cosmos.
Images flashed across my mind as I contemplated the cosmic event that we have just witnessed — the first in modern history recorded with such vividness by so many from numerous different angles.

Pictures of the 1908 Tunguska event also flashed in black and white, being the only pictures taken 19 years after the incident, a testament to how distant and treacherous the blast area was from civilization. I had read about Tunguska over and over again and was awed with dread at how large the devastation that meteor over Siberia had caused, with over 2,000 square kilometers and 80 million trees flattened in an outward pattern from the epicenter of the midair impact.
To put it in Philippine perspective and given that Metro Manila is only around 600 square kilometers, the Tunguska blast would have leveled an area reaching parts of Southern Tagalog and Central Luzon. Since I am a "prepper" (someone constantly preparing for an eventual gigantic disaster — on the level of Fukushima, for example), these stats are of extreme interest to me.

The images of such disasters are made more vivid in my mind in light of the Russia meteor event, one that is considered of historic significance by astrophysicists and scientists in general for their study. There must be a message in these.

Over a Saturday kapihan with some media friends, in the midst of discussions of the latest political and electoral squabbles, and the local meteor mouth Miriam Santiago's tirade about "Pinky" and the investigations into Port Irene smuggling, I could not help but quip about how petty all these politicians and issues are in light of the cosmological event we had just witnessed. One political and media veteran quipped, "But I can't do anything about the meteors while I can about these pols," and then chuckled. I reminded them that meteor events like the one we have seen can cause some of the greatest disasters imaginable to man, and it's no longer a matter of "if" but of "when" we will face such inevitability.

Fortunately, there are more advanced consciousness, cultures and systems in today's world that are not only aware of the dangers but believe man and his science can prepare and at least try to prevent such apocalyptic disasters — even from asteroids, meteors and comets crashing into Earth — from happening, such as the one believed to have wiped out the dinosaurs in the great extinction.

From Russian news agency RIA Novosti in 2008: "If we, people living on Earth, are unlucky, then Apophis, a 390-meter asteroid flying toward the Earth, 'will smack right into us in 2036,' according to Andrei Filkenshtein, a Russian astronomer from St. Petersburg… The Russian Space Agency (Roscosmos), together with the Defense Ministry and Academy of Sciences, has launched an anti-asteroid program. The first step will see a special radar mounted on a 70-meter telescope in Ussuriisk."
On the other side of the globe, NASA was reported by Flight aviation magazine in 2007 to have "designed a nuclear-warhead-carrying spacecraft, to be launched by the US agency's proposed Ares V cargo launch vehicle, to deflect an asteroid that could threaten all life on Earth."

There is today a call for international cooperation on anti-asteroid "terror" unity, but Filipino national "leaders" are still engaged in Neanderthal, club-wielding politics and grunting matches. Hopeless and pathetic? You be the judge.

(Tune in to 1098 AM, Tuesday to Friday, 5 p.m. to 6 p.m.; watch GNN's HTL show, GNN Channel 8, Saturdays, 8:15 p.m. to 9 p.m., 11:15 p.m. and Sunday 8 a.m., and over at www.gnntv-asia.com, with this week's topic, "Pangilinan's Philex Mining Disaster;" also visit http://newkatipunan.blogspot.com)

Call Brillantes’ bluff

DIE HARD III
Herman Tiu Laurel
2/13/2013



If a survey were done today, would Filipinos still believe that computer voting is the best system that the Comelec and Smartmatic claim it is or would be? Remember the tons and tons of propaganda the Comelec and Smartmatic churned out a year on to the 2010 elections and some more after about the congratulatory messages the Philippines got from all over the world, including kudos from the US and European embassies, for having "finally" having automated elections? I remember my criticism of my once, personally respected Comelec official lawyer Ferdinand Rafanan who, taken in by Smartmatic's sales talk vouched for the precinct count optical scan (PCOS) machines and said they are "perfectly tamper proof." He has disappeared from the scene reportedly due to utter shame, having discovered the truth about the machines.

Manual voting and counting are best. This is not just local wisdom. Countries like Germany and Switzerland, and lately Ireland, decided to go back to manual, after discovering the treachery to democratic elections computer or e-voting (electronic voting) and counting.
The Wiki says of Switzerland's voting: "There are no voting machines in Switzerland; all votes are counted by hand. Every municipality randomly recruits a number of citizens who have the duty of counting the ballots… after people sort the ballots … to count banknotes); or the ballots are weighed by a precision balance. Vote counting is usually accomplished within five or six hours, but votes for parliamentary elections from the citizens of large cities (Zurich or Geneva for example) may take much longer."

It is now known in the Philippines that Germany's Federal Supreme Court (SC) thumbed down electronic voting in 2009, ruling that the use of the electronic voting machines contradicts the public character of elections and noting the machines' shortcomings. The decision stemmed from a filing by political scientist Joachim Wiesner and physicist Ultrick Wiesner, father and son, asserting that the system was not transparent as voters "could not check what actually happened to his vote, being actually asked to blindly trust the technology… (that) the voting machines …do not print out receipts" and results could be manipulated. Those same infirmities are present in the PCOS machines and operation here today, and the lack of receipt is a particularly notable similarity to our complaints here.

The Philippines' election system's flaw was never in the precinct manual voting and counting, which was wholly more transparent and secure due to the open and public writing and casting of the ballot, the open and public counting displayed on a board before election, party and citizens-public monitors, with signed and thumb-marked multiple copies of canvass sheets. Comelec and Smarmatic's system today offer none of these publicly visible recording tools and means. Everything happens in the PCOS which uses hardware that violates the security provisions in the law: The presence of a plug-in port outlawed in the law, the use of rewritable cards where the law required WORM (write once read many), no digital signature of teacher nor machine, no itemized receipt, among many other clear violations.
The late information technology pioneer and election watchdog Mano Alcuaz of Systems Consult Inc. exposed the scam of automated voting and counting in the precinct level.

Here are quotes from Mano's July 2009 article: "'Automated election fraud' … can be divided into two parts: 1. Retail cheating in the counting and preparation of precinct election returns; 2. Wholesale fraud in the transmission and canvassing at the municipal, district, city and provincial levels… The beauty of the old system of writing names of candidates voted for, public reading of votes in front of watchers and citizens, tallying and manual preparation of election returns was that it was visible. At times there could have been fraud. But it was visible… In the new OMR system voters will feed the ballot into the machine the next thing they will see is the printed election return. Whether their votes were properly counted they will not know. Transparency at the precinct level is gone."

Automation election law proponents brazenly run roughshod on the automated election law, skirted and removed safeguards (criminal and impeachable, which should be filed), lie massively to the public in collaboration with some members of media. Yet, the Comelec commissioners and Smartmatic enjoy impunity, retired commissioners are rewarded with sinecures or Comelec consultancies. The entire corrupt system, from MalacaƱang to the SC (sitting for three years on petitions against the PCOS) down to mainstream media, foist "smart-magic" over the nation. But over time and with realistic experiences, truisms reassert themselves: on the voting and counting, to see is to believe. Just as hi-tech Germany and Switzerland reverted to the manual voting and counting system, the Philippines should too. Let's call Brillantes' bluff. Manual voting — it's the only real democratic alternative.

(Tune to 1098AM, Tuesday to Friday 5 to 6 p.m.; Global News Network, Channel 8, Destiny and other cable networks, Sat. 8:30pm for HTL edition Talk News TV, replay Sunday 8 a.m., this week "the Power Struggle continues"; with Jojo Borja, Sanlakas and Luie Corrale; visit http//www.newkatipunero.blogspot.com)