DIE HARD III / Herman Tiu Laurel / June 9, 2014 / Daily Tribune
BS Aquino assumed the presidency in 2010 without anybody, including himself, having any clue about his program of governance, much less his foreign policy direction.
This void in his domestic agenda, summed up in his “No wang-wang” State of the Nation Address, was made much more glaring when his early foreign relations crises betrayed his ignorance of even basic diplomacy — disappearing from sight and failing to communicate with Hong Kong’s chief executive at the height of the Luneta hostage massacre (followed by more fumbles four years on), as well as shooting-from-the-hip against Taiwan’s allegations in the 2013 killing of its fisherman, only to embarrassingly admit the culpability of Philippine Coast Guard personnel later on.
Considering the enormous significance the Philippines has played in global geopolitical relations, the cases of the HK Tourist Association and Taiwanese fisherman’s killing should really be very minor issues for a competent government; but, for a government such as Aquino’s, these become tsunamis of bad international publicity and a testy test of wills between the Philippines and the two smaller Chinese territories with tragi-comedic consequences, resulting in net losses to the country’s credibility and economic opportunities.
Even so, the deleterious effects from those two diplomatic debacles cannot compare to the disastrous handling by the current regime of its strategic relations with the leading nation of the 21st Century, China.
While BS Aquino fiddles with puerile theories of good governance through his vapid “no wang-wang” and “matuwid na daan” pronouncements, the rest of the world had already begun studying and responding to historic shifts in world history.
The global political landscape has changed so much that even the most powerful of the powerful on the world stage has had to read and catch the winds in order to steer the course of their nation’s voyage.
The world’s superpower, the US of A, waited for the opportune time to announce its “pivot” (later named “rebalancing”) to Asia, veering its power in the Asian Century toward the China Sea — in much the same way that it had captured the Philippines as its geopolitical base in Asia at the turn of the 20th Century.
A year after BS Aquino’s “election” into the presidency via Hocus-PCOS, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the US’ pivot to Asia as a return to its markets, primarily through the programmed transfer of 60 per cent of US military assets to the region by 2020.
China, of course, did not miss any of this nor any of the scathing lessons in its history with Western powers. China saw through the US prodding for the “nationalization” by the Japanese government of the Diaoyu (or Senkaku) Islands in 2012, and was not blind to Philippine officialdom’s appointment of a US green card-holding Foreign Affairs secretary, its elimination of credible China expert, Chito Sta. Romana, for the ambassadorial post to China, and its clandestine development with the US of the so-called Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca), among many other developments.
The current deterioration in Sino-Philippine relations cannot be more markedly different to how it was in years past. Since the late 1980s, Deng Xiaoping had already discussed with Corazon Aquino the need for mutual respect and bilateral dialog, and of shelving disputes in favor of joint development of resources in the disputed waters of the China Sea. Even 50/50 arrangements were proposed. Cory Aquino had no objections throughout her term while Fidel Ramos and Joseph Estrada continued with the cooperative spirit. Gloria Arroyo even signed a Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking with China (that was unfortunately shelved).
But the tone soon changed under BS Aquino, who presided over the arrest of Chinese fishermen at the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 (leading to a “standoff”), before allowing his subalterns to hurl false allegations against China, such as the “concrete blocks” for construction in 2013, the “invasion of Pagasa in 2014,” and other anti-Chinese black propaganda.
Despite persistent appeals for bilateral dialog, top Philippine officials continued the anti-China harangue and reveled in “insulting” it by filing the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (Itlos) case.
All these, coupled with Barack Obama’s April 2014 Manila visit, where he uttered his disingenuous “non-containment of China” speech, timed with the signing of the Edca between the US and the Philippines, undoubtedly set the tone for China’s latest assertions.
Since dialog is now off the table, and with the Edca signaling advanced US military deployment to this part of the world, China’s answer has been its reclamation activity at the Mabini Reef. Now, the Philippine press reports a “worried” BS Aquino, telling the nation of more Chinese ships at the disputed Spratlys, with more reclamation being undertaken.
Will the US come to save the reefs and islets that its purported ally is claiming? The Web site Real Clear Defense answers that through Harry Kazianis’ article, “Would Americans give their lives for Asia? No.” Well, at least not before 2020, that’s for sure. So why should China wait until the US has 60 per cent of its military forces in Asia?
BS Aquino and his cohorts now see the prospect of China really taking over the disputed islands and waters without any Philippine capability of countering it, and with the Itlos not mattering a hoot as the Chinese have said.
Still, dialog can be put back on the table if BS Aquino can come to his senses and learn some foreign policy and geopolitical history lessons fast.
BS Aquino, however, is a really bad learner. In the Napoles case, for instance, he has also made the strategic error of training his guns only against opposition senators, instead of seeking an honest-to-goodness political resolution that can lead to overall reform of the flawed system, of which he is part.
As a result, BS Aquino and his allies are as damaged today as their intended victims. They may become even more damaged once the Supreme Court brings out its ruling on their infamous Disbursement Acceleration Program.
(Join me and Chito Sta. Romana, Benito Lim, and others on our GNN Talk News TV program on June 14, Destiny Cable Channel 8, SkyCable Channel 213, and www.gnntv-asia.com, Saturday, 8:00 p.m. and replay Sunday, 8 a.m.; tune in to 1098 AM, dwAD, Tuesday to Friday, 5 p.m.; search Talk News TV and date of showing on YouTube; and visit http://newkatipunero.blogspot.com)
BS Aquino assumed the presidency in 2010 without anybody, including himself, having any clue about his program of governance, much less his foreign policy direction.
This void in his domestic agenda, summed up in his “No wang-wang” State of the Nation Address, was made much more glaring when his early foreign relations crises betrayed his ignorance of even basic diplomacy — disappearing from sight and failing to communicate with Hong Kong’s chief executive at the height of the Luneta hostage massacre (followed by more fumbles four years on), as well as shooting-from-the-hip against Taiwan’s allegations in the 2013 killing of its fisherman, only to embarrassingly admit the culpability of Philippine Coast Guard personnel later on.
Considering the enormous significance the Philippines has played in global geopolitical relations, the cases of the HK Tourist Association and Taiwanese fisherman’s killing should really be very minor issues for a competent government; but, for a government such as Aquino’s, these become tsunamis of bad international publicity and a testy test of wills between the Philippines and the two smaller Chinese territories with tragi-comedic consequences, resulting in net losses to the country’s credibility and economic opportunities.
Even so, the deleterious effects from those two diplomatic debacles cannot compare to the disastrous handling by the current regime of its strategic relations with the leading nation of the 21st Century, China.
While BS Aquino fiddles with puerile theories of good governance through his vapid “no wang-wang” and “matuwid na daan” pronouncements, the rest of the world had already begun studying and responding to historic shifts in world history.
The global political landscape has changed so much that even the most powerful of the powerful on the world stage has had to read and catch the winds in order to steer the course of their nation’s voyage.
The world’s superpower, the US of A, waited for the opportune time to announce its “pivot” (later named “rebalancing”) to Asia, veering its power in the Asian Century toward the China Sea — in much the same way that it had captured the Philippines as its geopolitical base in Asia at the turn of the 20th Century.
A year after BS Aquino’s “election” into the presidency via Hocus-PCOS, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the US’ pivot to Asia as a return to its markets, primarily through the programmed transfer of 60 per cent of US military assets to the region by 2020.
China, of course, did not miss any of this nor any of the scathing lessons in its history with Western powers. China saw through the US prodding for the “nationalization” by the Japanese government of the Diaoyu (or Senkaku) Islands in 2012, and was not blind to Philippine officialdom’s appointment of a US green card-holding Foreign Affairs secretary, its elimination of credible China expert, Chito Sta. Romana, for the ambassadorial post to China, and its clandestine development with the US of the so-called Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca), among many other developments.
The current deterioration in Sino-Philippine relations cannot be more markedly different to how it was in years past. Since the late 1980s, Deng Xiaoping had already discussed with Corazon Aquino the need for mutual respect and bilateral dialog, and of shelving disputes in favor of joint development of resources in the disputed waters of the China Sea. Even 50/50 arrangements were proposed. Cory Aquino had no objections throughout her term while Fidel Ramos and Joseph Estrada continued with the cooperative spirit. Gloria Arroyo even signed a Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking with China (that was unfortunately shelved).
But the tone soon changed under BS Aquino, who presided over the arrest of Chinese fishermen at the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 (leading to a “standoff”), before allowing his subalterns to hurl false allegations against China, such as the “concrete blocks” for construction in 2013, the “invasion of Pagasa in 2014,” and other anti-Chinese black propaganda.
Despite persistent appeals for bilateral dialog, top Philippine officials continued the anti-China harangue and reveled in “insulting” it by filing the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (Itlos) case.
All these, coupled with Barack Obama’s April 2014 Manila visit, where he uttered his disingenuous “non-containment of China” speech, timed with the signing of the Edca between the US and the Philippines, undoubtedly set the tone for China’s latest assertions.
Since dialog is now off the table, and with the Edca signaling advanced US military deployment to this part of the world, China’s answer has been its reclamation activity at the Mabini Reef. Now, the Philippine press reports a “worried” BS Aquino, telling the nation of more Chinese ships at the disputed Spratlys, with more reclamation being undertaken.
Will the US come to save the reefs and islets that its purported ally is claiming? The Web site Real Clear Defense answers that through Harry Kazianis’ article, “Would Americans give their lives for Asia? No.” Well, at least not before 2020, that’s for sure. So why should China wait until the US has 60 per cent of its military forces in Asia?
BS Aquino and his cohorts now see the prospect of China really taking over the disputed islands and waters without any Philippine capability of countering it, and with the Itlos not mattering a hoot as the Chinese have said.
Still, dialog can be put back on the table if BS Aquino can come to his senses and learn some foreign policy and geopolitical history lessons fast.
BS Aquino, however, is a really bad learner. In the Napoles case, for instance, he has also made the strategic error of training his guns only against opposition senators, instead of seeking an honest-to-goodness political resolution that can lead to overall reform of the flawed system, of which he is part.
As a result, BS Aquino and his allies are as damaged today as their intended victims. They may become even more damaged once the Supreme Court brings out its ruling on their infamous Disbursement Acceleration Program.
(Join me and Chito Sta. Romana, Benito Lim, and others on our GNN Talk News TV program on June 14, Destiny Cable Channel 8, SkyCable Channel 213, and www.gnntv-asia.com, Saturday, 8:00 p.m. and replay Sunday, 8 a.m.; tune in to 1098 AM, dwAD, Tuesday to Friday, 5 p.m.; search Talk News TV and date of showing on YouTube; and visit http://newkatipunero.blogspot.com)
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