Russia, Apec and RP

DIE HARD III

Herman Tiu Laurel

9/10/2012

While the US pivot back to Asia early 2012 has stirred controversy over its militaristic tone, another major power has been pivoting positively. Russia is emerging with its own "look East" policy, purely on trade terms aiming to expand trade with the region by "about 50 percent" in the coming years. This target was expressed way back in Moscow in a speech on Aug. 27, Deputy First Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. The pivot East of Russia fulfills the vision of the double-headed eagle state emblem of Russia with one head facing West and the other head now clearing its vision of its view of Asia. Russia can indeed in the 21st Century, bridge the perspective for the entire World; filling in for the blind spots. Its pivot can be the fulcrum balancing West and East, supported by its economic clout with the globe's largest deposit of oil and gas now beginning to be tapped.

This year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum was opened in Vladivostok by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The international cable TV news carried the grand opening and parade of heads-of-states to the easternmost city of the only country in the world that covers 11 time zones. A look at the Atlas to behold the entire expanse of Russia shows a breathtaking panorama of territory, as impressive as the grand and impressive edifices built by Russia for the Apec meet. With its recent entry into the World Trade Organization, despite some misgivings today in the world about trade globalization, Russia signals its readiness to face the challenge of global economic competition while promoting its own economic interests and spreading its goodwill particularly with the nations of the East.

Russia's pivot East is palpable in the Philippines, as we witness greater Russian presence in local media, increased activities such as the visit of Russian artist early this year to its grand National Day celebration. We saw this in the special briefing in the Russian embassy arranged for some journalists on the occasion of the Apec summit in Vladivostock. One significant manifestation is the assignment of a Commercial Counselor at the embassy after years of absence. Although a permanent trade mission had been around for some time we hadn't met any trade counselor in the past years. We were introduced to Andrey Sapozhnikov who's been in Manila for six months now, and in our briefing we were read some statistics showing dramatic increases in trade with the Philippines in the past year; they're small compared to trade with traditional trading partners but a huge leap compared to Russia-Philippines trade the past decade. The deputy chief of Mission, Minister-Counselor Artem Kudoyarov also joined us in the briefing, engaging us in a very lively discussion of trade possibilities and the merits and demerits of Apec, compared to BRICS and the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership).

At the special briefing counselor Saposhnikov read an official document pertaining to Russia's policies and activities relating to Russia's chairmanship of the 2012 Apec, citing 100 events since Jan. 1, including ministerial sessions, meetings of senior officials, committees and task teams, seminar and conferences, 50 initiatives and blueprints proposed by the Russian government. All these, Sapozhnikov stated, "…encompassing four priority spheres — trade and investment liberalization and regional economic integration; strengthening food security; establishing reliable supply chains; intensive cooperation to foster innovative growth." We do not have space to list all but especially interesting is Russia's support for "joint efforts aimed at the formation of the single educational zone within Apec region," a very interesting program we should now more about.

Simultaneous with the 2012 Apec is a 2012 Youth Apec which was initiated by Russia Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev earlier. I found this out on the Internet. Its main goal is to show that young people are able to discuss serious problems and decisions and should be heard. The three days of discussions came up with the Apec Youth Leaders Declaration to be presented to leaders of Apec. The Youth meet depicts the ideal World of tomorrow, all nations around the Pacific rim working together towards economic prosperity and peace. At this writing the main Apec forum is on its last day and no final declaration has been issued but the messages during the summit is a good indication: from leaders such as Putin and Hu Jin Tao, admonitions about the perils of the protectionist temptations and calls for the calming of tensions in Asia. These are positive signals we welcome.

Russia and President Vladimir Putin has certainly pulled off an impressive show of leadership in Apec 2012. I rate this performance at par with China's hosting of the 2008 Olympics, in setting the stage for the respective nations' role for the 21st Century World. Russia is here to stay as a major economic and political power on the World stage, and the Philippines and Filipinos should take note and recognize the third major global power that will be among the major factors to enhance the progressive future of the region and the country — Russia, alongside China and the US.

(Watch Destiny Cable GNN's HTL edition of Talk News TV, Saturdays, 8:15 to 9 p.m., with replay at 11:15 p.m. and Sunday, and on www.gnntv-asia.com: this week "Power, Water: the Struggle"; tune to 1098AM radio every Thursday 3 p.m.; visit http://newkatipunan.blogspot.com)

A creeping containment

BACKBENCHER
Rod P. Kapunan
9/8-9/2012



Maybe it is high time to remind US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton that China is the only great power to fight the US yet comes out to exert an even greater influence in world politics. Unlike the great powers whose influence have either been reduced by defeat as Germany and Japan, or imploded in the aftermath of internal political retraction as the Soviet Union, China fought the US in a bloody but limited land war in Korea. Yet it is about to emerge as the greatest economic power of our time.

China's entry into the Korean War in 1950 has put a dent on the image of the US as an invincible superpower. The country whose huge army was derisively called "pajama-clad soldiers" was the first to deny the US its trophy of victory. The Korean War ended in the signing of an armistice agreement on July 27, 1953. It was not peace brought about by victory or one negotiated to end the conflict, but a temporary cessation of hostilities.

Although it was North Korea and the US that signed as principal parties to the armistice agreement, the world knew it was the result of an agonizing realization by the US that it was locked in a fierce stalemate with no hope of victory. Pouring in an insurmountable number of troops to fight alongside with their North Korean allies, the People Liberation Army in no time pushed the allied forces to the fringes of South Korea. Many anticipated it as another Dunkirk with the humiliated American soldiers about to wade their way to Japan.

The early optimism of General Douglas MacArthur to cross the Yalu River ended up in disastrous retreat. After the Inchon landing where the US forces rapidly advanced, that was soon reversed after Chinese troops pushed US troops far below the 38thParallel. That victory, though paid with a heavy price, left a deep scar into the unblemished record in American military history.

To repair his badly tarnished image, General MacArthur proposed the idea of using an atom bomb to destroy China's industrial plants in Manchuria and carpet bombing the supply lines for the Chinese troops that were advancing like swarm of ants. Unfortunately, that arrogance was not shared by US President Harry Truman, thus forcing him to unceremoniously sack the aging Commander of the US Forces in Korea.

We are compelled to give this backdrop to remind Clinton that while China cannot militarily match the US, its armed forces have been modernized by quantum lead. The army that once walked in snickers to cause the US to nosebleed in Korea could usher in an even devastating damage to the US forces in the whole of Asia in the event of another conflict. It is for this why the US is trying to avoid direct confrontation with China over the disputed islets in the South China Sea.

The problem with this duplicity in the US policy is it cannot pursue a neutral position while marshalling the members of the Asean to ratify the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea that could technically place them on a direct collision course with China.

First, not all the members of the association have territorial claims in the South China Sea. This explains why Cambodia refused to come out with a final communiqué in the recently concluded Asean ministerial meeting in Phnom Penh.

Second, the member-countries are aware that the association is not an ideological bloc, but an economic bloc which has succeeded in institutionalizing many of their declared policies. Formally integrating the disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea into their agenda could transform the economic bloc to a political forum that could be exploited by non-member countries like the US.

Third, not all Asean-member countries share the same ideological sentiments to unify them, viz. ratify the proposed Code of Conduct. Their primordial concern is on how to develop further their trade ties and explore the possibilities of welcoming Chinese investments.

Fourth, for the fact that the US is the one brokering for the early ratification of the Code of Conduct, that endorsement has backfired. Right now, it is perceived as a Trojan horse. Once ratified, it could automatically convert the dispute to one between China and the Asean with the bloc playing proxy for the US in containing China.

Fifth, to ratify the Code of Conduct could spell an end to an illustrious economic bloc. Either it could disintegrate due disuse or could signal the revival of an arms race. The price they will have to pay to subsidize the ambition of the US and its surrogate states, like the Philippines, is too high for the brisk trade they now enjoy with modern China.

Sixth, Asean today stands as the most successful regional bloc in the whole of Asia. Many of its economic agenda have been institutionalized and integrated as part of the member-countries' economic development goals. That feat could easily be set aside by the conversion of Asean into a highly politicized regional bloc.

As of now, the US is the one heavily profiting from the increased tension as seen in the steep purchase of military equipment by the Philippines that could not even tip the scale to alter the balance of power in the region. Instead its limited resources will be dissipated, while in the meantime, the US takes advantage to advance its economic interest in dealing with China.

Finally, a direct confrontation now with China could be far costlier and more devastating for the US. A second round confrontation is something even the majority of the Americans would wish to avoid.

rpkapunan@gmail.com

9/11: 2001 to 2012

DIE HARD III
Herman Tiu Laurel
9/7/2012



The New Year's Eve celebration on Dec. 31, 2000 was drummed up as a very special one.  Man's history was turning not just another year but another century and a new millennium. The year 2001 would begin a new hundred years or century, and 10 of that would end in a New Year's Eve bang toward 3001. Hopes were high in the world as the decade before had been one of massive historical shifts with the end of the Soviet Union and with China's detour toward market-oriented reforms.

But in the Philippines, just 17 days into 2001, a coup against the "dropout" President Estrada was carried out — one that installed an "economist" promising reforms in the form of a diminutive Gloria Arroyo. In the US, too, another change was in the offing as George W. Bush was sworn in as president on Jan. 20 after much electoral and legal wrangle.  In both instances, mainstream failed to read the creeping malevolence beneath the stage-managed "euphoria."

Bush, for one, set the tone for the 21st Century by denouncing the "Axis of Evil" of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea — none of which, it must be stressed, ever invaded his country. Seven years later, Gen. Wesley Clark, in a speech to the Commonwealth Club in Frisco, described what he viewed was "a policy coup" in the weeks after 9/11 by neocons Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and "a half dozen other collaborators from the Project for a New American Century" revealed to him by a fellow officer who said: "We're going to attack and destroy the governments in seven countries in five years… We're going to start with Iraq and then we're going to move to Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran."

Iraq has been demolished into perpetual "suicide bombing" of Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds against each other; Afghanistan became a necessary sequel to 9/11's "Hunt Bin Laden" drive; Libya has been reduced to a militia nation; while Syria is being wrecked to open the way to Iran. In the Philippines, the tone for the decade was set by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's speech at the Yellow crowd's coup-plotting Council of Philippine Affairs (Copa)'s fête with military and police generals, "civil society" leaders and media — her co-conspirators in the Edsa II coup. As that "rule of force" of the elite was set in place, the economy and bureaucracy were carved up by power blocks, with the military generals getting their "pabaon" and civilian posts, and the elite getting P10 trillion in profits over the decade (as reported by Arroyo economic adviser Joey Salceda).

Gloria then got the Philippines onboard the "Coalition of the Willing" of Dubya and joined the carnage in Iraq until overseas Filipino worker truck driver Angelo de la Cruz was kidnapped by the Kaleed bin al-Waleed Brigade and later returned in exchange for the withdrawal of the Philippine contingent. Now Arroyo is in and out of prison, spat upon by the Yellow crowd.
Marking the decade, the "War on Terror" has provided justification for the US and global campaign to enforce the "national security state" in US-dominated parts of the world.

Domestically, the US established the Department of Homeland Security. US TV now has a series called "Homeland" about a colonel turned Arab DPA terrorist and a CIA lady out to catch him. "Terror" has led to the reviled TSA (Transportation Security Administration) "total pat down" of airport travelers that includes the grabbing of crotches. In Iraq, the consequence is over a million civilian deaths; a figure the Los Angeles Times reported as far back as 2007. Total Afghanistan war casualties are estimated at 50,000 while Pakistani civilian deaths from US-Afghan drone attacks, suicide- and IED-bombings have reached 35,000. The War on Terror also gave impetus to the numerous anti-money laundering laws in the world.  All these are thanks to Bush and Nobel Peace Prize awardee Barack Obama.

The Sept. 11 tragedy was the most powerful event in television history, according to a new study released Wednesday by Sony Electronics and Nielsen surveying 1,077 American adults — the most "universally impactful" televised moment in 50 years.  
Yahoo reports: "To measure impact, Nielsen and Sony created a score for each event derived by the number of people who viewed the event live, the number who could recall details about where they were during the occurrence, and the number who could remember discussing what happened with others." Conversely, surveys have also been made of what citizens think of the connection of 9/11 to the notion of a conspiracy. In 2006, Zogby Polls found that over 70 million Americans distrusted the official government investigation of the event and supported new investigations. Today, activist Alex Jones reports a survey by Gok NOP with the BBC finding 14 percent of Britons and Americans believing the US government staged the 9/11 attack.

I believe all the evidence that point to the 9/11 World Trade Center (WTC) attacks as an "inside job," with the neocons at the helm (watch YouTube, Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth; Experts speak out). A third building (WTC 7), never hit by a plane and a football field away from WTC 1 and 2, later also collapsed on its footprint at the speed of gravity (i.e. free falling to the ground with no resistance from the floors below). While they have fooled 86 percent of Americans even after 11 years, the ruling cabal, Virginia, can have that fantastic degree of control of events, but truth will always out.

Now, would you wonder why BS Aquino III would defy an alliance with the Catholic Church bequeathed by Cory Aquino on the Reproductive Health bill?  That's Uncle Sam's order, you see. Only a fool would defy it at the risk of Hocus PCOS being exposed by Uncle Thomas.

(Watch Talk News TV with HTL, Saturdays, 8 to 9 p.m., with replay at 11:15 p.m. and Sundays, on GNN Destiny Cable Channel 8, this week, "9/11 Inside Job;" visit http://newkatipunero.blogspot.com)