A creeping containment

BACKBENCHER
Rod P. Kapunan
9/8-9/2012



Maybe it is high time to remind US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton that China is the only great power to fight the US yet comes out to exert an even greater influence in world politics. Unlike the great powers whose influence have either been reduced by defeat as Germany and Japan, or imploded in the aftermath of internal political retraction as the Soviet Union, China fought the US in a bloody but limited land war in Korea. Yet it is about to emerge as the greatest economic power of our time.

China's entry into the Korean War in 1950 has put a dent on the image of the US as an invincible superpower. The country whose huge army was derisively called "pajama-clad soldiers" was the first to deny the US its trophy of victory. The Korean War ended in the signing of an armistice agreement on July 27, 1953. It was not peace brought about by victory or one negotiated to end the conflict, but a temporary cessation of hostilities.

Although it was North Korea and the US that signed as principal parties to the armistice agreement, the world knew it was the result of an agonizing realization by the US that it was locked in a fierce stalemate with no hope of victory. Pouring in an insurmountable number of troops to fight alongside with their North Korean allies, the People Liberation Army in no time pushed the allied forces to the fringes of South Korea. Many anticipated it as another Dunkirk with the humiliated American soldiers about to wade their way to Japan.

The early optimism of General Douglas MacArthur to cross the Yalu River ended up in disastrous retreat. After the Inchon landing where the US forces rapidly advanced, that was soon reversed after Chinese troops pushed US troops far below the 38thParallel. That victory, though paid with a heavy price, left a deep scar into the unblemished record in American military history.

To repair his badly tarnished image, General MacArthur proposed the idea of using an atom bomb to destroy China's industrial plants in Manchuria and carpet bombing the supply lines for the Chinese troops that were advancing like swarm of ants. Unfortunately, that arrogance was not shared by US President Harry Truman, thus forcing him to unceremoniously sack the aging Commander of the US Forces in Korea.

We are compelled to give this backdrop to remind Clinton that while China cannot militarily match the US, its armed forces have been modernized by quantum lead. The army that once walked in snickers to cause the US to nosebleed in Korea could usher in an even devastating damage to the US forces in the whole of Asia in the event of another conflict. It is for this why the US is trying to avoid direct confrontation with China over the disputed islets in the South China Sea.

The problem with this duplicity in the US policy is it cannot pursue a neutral position while marshalling the members of the Asean to ratify the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea that could technically place them on a direct collision course with China.

First, not all the members of the association have territorial claims in the South China Sea. This explains why Cambodia refused to come out with a final communiqué in the recently concluded Asean ministerial meeting in Phnom Penh.

Second, the member-countries are aware that the association is not an ideological bloc, but an economic bloc which has succeeded in institutionalizing many of their declared policies. Formally integrating the disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea into their agenda could transform the economic bloc to a political forum that could be exploited by non-member countries like the US.

Third, not all Asean-member countries share the same ideological sentiments to unify them, viz. ratify the proposed Code of Conduct. Their primordial concern is on how to develop further their trade ties and explore the possibilities of welcoming Chinese investments.

Fourth, for the fact that the US is the one brokering for the early ratification of the Code of Conduct, that endorsement has backfired. Right now, it is perceived as a Trojan horse. Once ratified, it could automatically convert the dispute to one between China and the Asean with the bloc playing proxy for the US in containing China.

Fifth, to ratify the Code of Conduct could spell an end to an illustrious economic bloc. Either it could disintegrate due disuse or could signal the revival of an arms race. The price they will have to pay to subsidize the ambition of the US and its surrogate states, like the Philippines, is too high for the brisk trade they now enjoy with modern China.

Sixth, Asean today stands as the most successful regional bloc in the whole of Asia. Many of its economic agenda have been institutionalized and integrated as part of the member-countries' economic development goals. That feat could easily be set aside by the conversion of Asean into a highly politicized regional bloc.

As of now, the US is the one heavily profiting from the increased tension as seen in the steep purchase of military equipment by the Philippines that could not even tip the scale to alter the balance of power in the region. Instead its limited resources will be dissipated, while in the meantime, the US takes advantage to advance its economic interest in dealing with China.

Finally, a direct confrontation now with China could be far costlier and more devastating for the US. A second round confrontation is something even the majority of the Americans would wish to avoid.

rpkapunan@gmail.com