7th Fleet bluff

DIE HARD III

Herman Tiu Laurel

1/28/2013

Daily Tribune

Provocative acts from Japan and the Philippines on territorial disputes with China are hinged on the two's "Mutual Defense Treaties" with the US, backed up with the presence of the US 7th Fleet. Thus we often hear that "China is afraid of the U.S" because of this. Is the 7th Fleet that invulnerable? Author Gary Brechter of the "The War Nerd" writes in Alternet "'Navy's Big Weakness: Our Aircraft Carriers Are (Expensive) Defenseless Sitting Ducks'… The Chinese military has developed a ballistic missile, Dong Feng 21, specifically designed to kill US aircraft carriers… the missile employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable… it can evade tracking systems … travel at Mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2,000 kilometers in less than 12 minutes."

2,000 kilometers is about the distance from China's Hainan naval base, where the closest missile bases are expectedly based, to strategic locations for any anti-China armada. Frederik van Lokeren writes In "'Implications of the Chinese naval base at Hainan' …The US 7th Fleet finds itself cornered by the newly discovered Chinese activity at Hainan. While the US 7th Fleet is capable of containing the Chinese Northern Fleet it is unable to have enough influence on Chinese activities in the South Chinese Sea …. the 7th Fleet would require a more central location such as the Philippines for example. Right now the United States military is already voicing demands for closer cooperation and basing in the Philippines." The article envisions the Japanese and Philippine navy to have a bigger naval role in the area — and right smack into the range of the Chinese missiles.

Brecher writes further, "Every single change in technology in the past half-century has had 'Stop building carriers!' written all over it." Aircraft carriers are good for psywar and bullying, but not much more. The Western fleets are even uncertain of victory against Iran's land launched missiles in the Straits of Hormuz, and have not launch a "no fly zone" in Syria for fear of anti-aircraft missiles. Then this from Weapons and Technology: "'China's Buying a Fleet of Russian Bombers Perfect for Taking on the US Navy'… Tupolev Tu-22M3 bomber at a cost of $1.5 billion…. supersonic, swing-wing, long-range strategic and maritime strike bomber … it will get updated with indigenous systems and an extended range making it a significant threat to many latest generations weapon systems."

The Department of Foreign Affairs under green card holder Alberto del Rosario raised the Philippines-China territorial dispute to the ITLoS (International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea). China ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea only to the extent that it does not impinge upon its sovereign claims and does not submit to Article 298 arbitration as UNCLoS provides. Due to this, diplomatic experts say the Philippine case in ITLoS would not prosper if Beijing refuses to participate in the arbitration. Also, as condition to it ratification China stipulated that, "The PROC reaffirms its sovereignty over all its archipelagos and islands as listed in Article 2 of the Law of the People's Republic of China on the territorial sea and the contiguous zone…. promulgated on Feb. 25, 1992." The Philippines also posited conditions for ratifying UNCLoS.

RP also stipulated that UNCLoS "shall not diminish … (its) rights and obligations… under the Mutual Defense Treaty" with the US" and "…shall not in any manner impair or prejudice the sovereignty of the RP over any territory over which it exercises sovereign authority…" But the DFA reveals its real helplessness in saying, "What we want to do is to form an arbitral panel and we invite China to do so," unfortunately the guest won't be coming to dinner. The result of the Japanese "nationalization" of the Diaoyu and Philippine diplomatic escalation actually conforms to US strategic plans instead of the national interest of the respective countries, the region and the peaceful and balanced development of the World economy is the loss of badly needed economic cooperation and impetus; but that is good for the economic recovery of the US with arms sales and depressed intra-Asian trade.

Lawyer Harry Roque in an article supported the DFA's ITLoS case, then ironically concludes: "Lest I be accused of being overly optimistic, the truth is China may very well argue that its legal entitlement to the disputed waters is based on its 'uncontroverted' sovereignty to land territories… it may be enough to remove jurisdiction from it (ITLoS) because the matter, as phrased by China, may no longer be an issue of 'interpretation' and 'application' of the UNCLoS. If this happens, we will be back to where we were: a standoff." BS Aqino III has been led into a fiasco by the DFA green card holder. Their 7th Fleet card is a bluff. RP loses goodwill as most of Asean enjoy boom trade with China.

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