Herman Tiu Laurel
4/30-5/6/2012
OpinYon
Viewing the Scarborough affair from my lighthouse and watching humongous Chinese ships crisscross puny Philippine civilian vessels, I noted that these goings-on were really tiny insignificant specks in the vastness of the China Sea.
Looking northward, I can see Vietnam and all I see are busy surveyor ships with Vietnamese, Russian, and Indian markings plowing through that part of the waters, pausing very frequently to drop what seems like dipsticks, long measuring tapes, sensors, cameras, and other analytical instruments.
These are two contrasting approaches to the territorial rows of two different countries with China--the Philippines and Vietnam. While one seems to be creating a scar over the surface of the sea, the other is creating an atmosphere of broader cooperation with many countries that even China will eventually have to accept and join.
Vietnam is engaged in the "share-borough" approach, having joint oil exploration pacts with India and Russia, both members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) alliance, with whom China would not want to have conflicts with.
The Philippines has so far opted to take a testy route in navigating its spat with China which appears both foolish and stupid to most analysts--though the BS Aquino III administration may believe this is earning patriot points (which I doubt).
The BS Aquino Foreign and Defense secretaries have been openly announcing to media that they are on a trip to Washington toward the end of April to bring up the problem of China's claim to the Scarborough shoals, which smacks to everyone watching as the crybaby running to its big brother. Pitiful, to say the least.
With the approach the BS Aquino government is taking in this dispute over the shoals off the coast of Zambales, the Philippines will be tied to US interests, practically committing our country to tie up on any exploration ventures only with the US and its traditional partners, such a Britain (as in the Malampaya gas-to-power project with Shell and Chevron-Texaco, which gives the Philippines only a 10% share). Is this the template the Philippines will have for all its future oil projects? It doesn't look good at all for the future of the Philippine energy picture and its national economy.
Conversely, the Vietnamese template is ideal: Deal with all countries with the capital and technology to tap underwater sea resources right now! China will not be able to resist for long to join the oil exploration bandwagon, and with its huge dollar reserves it can offer a great deal to beat the others to the punch--but, that is, if the Philippines is talking to it which up to this time it is not.
The Chinese complain through the grapevine that polite offers to talk tikoy or turkey have been met with stone silence from BS Aquino III. Could the reason for the Great Wall of Dedma (patay malisya) be his fear of US displeasure?
At the Diliman Book Club lectures where Filipino China expert Chito Sta. Romana spoke for five hours (aided by 85 Power Point slides), the discussion on the Scarborough shoal issue was the liveliest. The number of Tsinoy tycoons there insisted that they are aware of the overtures China have made to the BS Aquino III government on cooperation with fantastic "you can't refuse" propositions, but Aquino just won't respond. Many are convinced it is his fear of Uncle Tom in the embassy on Roxas Blvd. that stymies him.
The US plan for the Asia-Pacific, as announced by Obama last December when he spoke during a visit to Australia, is to bring US military focus back to the region. That has just begun with the deployment of the first contingent of 2,500 US Marines to be stationed in Darwin, Northern Australia--the base of McArthur during World War II. This time, the US seems to be preempting any possibility or maybe preparing to position first-strike capability. The announced missile defense deployment in the region using the North Korean "threat" as an excuse has similar implications. In all, the Philippines seems to be playing into this game plan.
From the lighthouse we can see many things, and we can issue the warnings. As I said in the Diliman Book Club discussion, the Filipino intelligentsia has the obligation to remind the people to always "Remember to remember" and teach the old truisms, such as "Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely," which describe the likely consequences of US and NATO drives today to regain absolute power over the world. I added, it is the obligation of the intelligentsia to help promote the multipolar world, which is the only likely guarantee that US-NATO unilateralism can be stopped.
Multipolarism is a fundamental policy the world must maintain today in order to prevent a reversion to the unipolar world of the last two decades, which led the US under Bush and the neocons to dream and implement the so-called Project for a New American Century that created the 9/11 inside job to launch invasions into Iraq, Afghanistan, and now expanding to the rest of the World.
Only multipolarism, with BRICS at the helm, can stop this. China understands this; and that's why the Vietnamese template is the best and most promising direction for PH-Sino relations over the China Sea disputes.
But can we hope for rational, intelligent, courageous, independent, imaginative and truly nationalist and patriotic actions from a leadership that is bred in the tradition of collaborating with the ruling colonial master?
When the lolo is a collaborator of the Japanese; when the father admits to working "with the Americans;" and the mother one was the one who gave away Sabah, a true national patrimony, what can we expect from the present Aquino-Cojuangco on the throne?
Still, hope springs eternal. Perhaps efforts to enlighten them may find the mark at some time, so we can only keep trying.
The day sinks down the horizon and from this lighthouse the darkening skies are quiet and beautiful. There are no dark clouds over Scarborough shoals and the star lights peep out one by one. The sea is clam; there are no scars on the surface… yet.
(Tune in to 1098AM, DWAD, Sulo ng Pilipino/Radyo OpinYon, Monday to Friday, 5 to 6 p.m.; watch Destiny Cable GNN's HTL edition of Talk News TV, Saturdays, 8:15 to 9 p.m., with replay at 11:15 p.m., on "Anti-Large Scale Mining Update: Tampakan;" visit http://newkatipunero.blogspot.com for our articles plus TV and radio archives)
Looking northward, I can see Vietnam and all I see are busy surveyor ships with Vietnamese, Russian, and Indian markings plowing through that part of the waters, pausing very frequently to drop what seems like dipsticks, long measuring tapes, sensors, cameras, and other analytical instruments.
These are two contrasting approaches to the territorial rows of two different countries with China--the Philippines and Vietnam. While one seems to be creating a scar over the surface of the sea, the other is creating an atmosphere of broader cooperation with many countries that even China will eventually have to accept and join.
Vietnam is engaged in the "share-borough" approach, having joint oil exploration pacts with India and Russia, both members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) alliance, with whom China would not want to have conflicts with.
The Philippines has so far opted to take a testy route in navigating its spat with China which appears both foolish and stupid to most analysts--though the BS Aquino III administration may believe this is earning patriot points (which I doubt).
The BS Aquino Foreign and Defense secretaries have been openly announcing to media that they are on a trip to Washington toward the end of April to bring up the problem of China's claim to the Scarborough shoals, which smacks to everyone watching as the crybaby running to its big brother. Pitiful, to say the least.
With the approach the BS Aquino government is taking in this dispute over the shoals off the coast of Zambales, the Philippines will be tied to US interests, practically committing our country to tie up on any exploration ventures only with the US and its traditional partners, such a Britain (as in the Malampaya gas-to-power project with Shell and Chevron-Texaco, which gives the Philippines only a 10% share). Is this the template the Philippines will have for all its future oil projects? It doesn't look good at all for the future of the Philippine energy picture and its national economy.
Conversely, the Vietnamese template is ideal: Deal with all countries with the capital and technology to tap underwater sea resources right now! China will not be able to resist for long to join the oil exploration bandwagon, and with its huge dollar reserves it can offer a great deal to beat the others to the punch--but, that is, if the Philippines is talking to it which up to this time it is not.
The Chinese complain through the grapevine that polite offers to talk tikoy or turkey have been met with stone silence from BS Aquino III. Could the reason for the Great Wall of Dedma (patay malisya) be his fear of US displeasure?
At the Diliman Book Club lectures where Filipino China expert Chito Sta. Romana spoke for five hours (aided by 85 Power Point slides), the discussion on the Scarborough shoal issue was the liveliest. The number of Tsinoy tycoons there insisted that they are aware of the overtures China have made to the BS Aquino III government on cooperation with fantastic "you can't refuse" propositions, but Aquino just won't respond. Many are convinced it is his fear of Uncle Tom in the embassy on Roxas Blvd. that stymies him.
The US plan for the Asia-Pacific, as announced by Obama last December when he spoke during a visit to Australia, is to bring US military focus back to the region. That has just begun with the deployment of the first contingent of 2,500 US Marines to be stationed in Darwin, Northern Australia--the base of McArthur during World War II. This time, the US seems to be preempting any possibility or maybe preparing to position first-strike capability. The announced missile defense deployment in the region using the North Korean "threat" as an excuse has similar implications. In all, the Philippines seems to be playing into this game plan.
From the lighthouse we can see many things, and we can issue the warnings. As I said in the Diliman Book Club discussion, the Filipino intelligentsia has the obligation to remind the people to always "Remember to remember" and teach the old truisms, such as "Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely," which describe the likely consequences of US and NATO drives today to regain absolute power over the world. I added, it is the obligation of the intelligentsia to help promote the multipolar world, which is the only likely guarantee that US-NATO unilateralism can be stopped.
Multipolarism is a fundamental policy the world must maintain today in order to prevent a reversion to the unipolar world of the last two decades, which led the US under Bush and the neocons to dream and implement the so-called Project for a New American Century that created the 9/11 inside job to launch invasions into Iraq, Afghanistan, and now expanding to the rest of the World.
Only multipolarism, with BRICS at the helm, can stop this. China understands this; and that's why the Vietnamese template is the best and most promising direction for PH-Sino relations over the China Sea disputes.
But can we hope for rational, intelligent, courageous, independent, imaginative and truly nationalist and patriotic actions from a leadership that is bred in the tradition of collaborating with the ruling colonial master?
When the lolo is a collaborator of the Japanese; when the father admits to working "with the Americans;" and the mother one was the one who gave away Sabah, a true national patrimony, what can we expect from the present Aquino-Cojuangco on the throne?
Still, hope springs eternal. Perhaps efforts to enlighten them may find the mark at some time, so we can only keep trying.
The day sinks down the horizon and from this lighthouse the darkening skies are quiet and beautiful. There are no dark clouds over Scarborough shoals and the star lights peep out one by one. The sea is clam; there are no scars on the surface… yet.
(Tune in to 1098AM, DWAD, Sulo ng Pilipino/Radyo OpinYon, Monday to Friday, 5 to 6 p.m.; watch Destiny Cable GNN's HTL edition of Talk News TV, Saturdays, 8:15 to 9 p.m., with replay at 11:15 p.m., on "Anti-Large Scale Mining Update: Tampakan;" visit http://newkatipunero.blogspot.com for our articles plus TV and radio archives)
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