People Power reversed!

YESTERDAY, TODAY & TOMORROW
Linggoy Alcuaz
2/13-19/2012



Fifteen days, four weeks, a month, have passed of the Impeachment Trial of Chief Justice Renato “Rene” Coronado Corona at the Senate.

In the period between the railroading of the Impeachment by the Lower House on December 12, 2011 and the January 16, 2012 opening of the trial, Corona had already been convicted by the majority in both media and public opinion.

However, by the third week of the trial, due mainly to the incompetence of the prosecution, the mood had swung.

According to the Philippine Daily Inquirer’s survey two weekends ago, the majority of those surveyed now believed that Corona would be acquitted.

We had been predicting that the initiators of the Impeachment, PNoy, the Liberal Party, Evil Society and the Lower House, would be hard put to secure 16 votes from among the 20 – three sitting Senators to convict Corona.

We believe that if 12 to 15 senators vote for conviction, there would be a moral conviction by a simple majority of the senators and at the same time a legal and echnical acquittal.

Sixteen votes or two – thirds of the total number of 20 – four seats are required under the 1987 Constitution to impeach an impeachable official.

We have been saying that PNoy, the LP, Evil Society and the Lower House will not accept defeat in the form of an acquittal. Therefore, they have been planning a Plan “B.”

Plan B is akin to and based on Edsa Uno and Dos where the Plan A or original plans were:

(a) To defeat President Marcos and Senator Tolentino in the Friday, February 7, 1986 snap presidential and vice presidential elections. However, Marcos allegedly cheated Cory and Doy;

(b) To oust President Estrada by impeaching and convicting him from the October 2000 “jueteng” expose, to the Speaker Manny Villar impeachment prayer express until the end of the impeachment trial. However, on January 16, 2001 the prosecutors in the impeachment trial walked out.

The first plan in the present situation was to quickly impeach Corona and either:

(a) Scare him into resigning before the Trial started or;

(b) Proceed with the trial and present enough evidence and generate enough political reasons to secure a conviction by the Constitutional requirement of 16 votes.

Thus, while the Lower House prosecutes the case in the Senate impeachment court, its spokesmen persecute the impeached Chief Justice in a trial by publicity.

The Plan B in all three situations involves:

(a) A critical situation that has captured the attention and imagination of the entire country, reaches a climax or a very high point;

(b) A trigger occurs at the highest and most opportune point;

(c) A call is made to assemble at a significant and symbolic place;

(d) The mobilization of a big number of demonstrators reaches a critical point;

(e) A faction of the AFP, PNP and civilian bureaucracy withdraws support from the top official being ousted. In the case of the February 7, 1986 snap elections and the February 22 – 25 People Power at Edsa I, this occurred before the Civilian Mobilization; and finally,

(f) The official concerned abandons his post.

In the Corona trial, the high point has been reached several times. However, it is the series of failures of the prosecution panel that has also depressed the situation from the high point to a mediocre level.

The trigger could have been any of the following:

(a) A TRO from the SC stopping the impeachment process just as the impeachment of Ombudsman Merceditas Gurierrez had been temporarily stopped;

(b) A decision by the Senate impeachment court not to subpoena the bank records of Corona; and now

(c) A TRO from the SC stopping the opening of the FCD accounts.

So far presiding officer Senator Juan Ponce Enrile has been very careful not to provide any of the two sides the opportunity to walkout and bring the issue exclusively to the streets.

However, the Supreme Court’s preliminary injunction with TRO issued last Thursday afternoon will come to a head this Monday afternoon during and after the Senate caucus regarding the said SC order.

We should also note that a big anti-impeachment rally was staged during the en banc session last Thursday at the Supreme Court. The TRO and the rally confirm to us that Corona continues to fight.

On the other hand the anti-Corona rally at the Senate was much smaller. This is an indication that the impeachment issue has a very difficult time achieving a climax. We will see next whether the TRO can heat up the situation to a boiling point.

If the Senate decides to obey the TRO, tensions will subside. The situation is not at such a level that the conspirators including the Executive Branch and half of the Legislative Branch can mobilize against both the Supreme Court and the Senate combined.

However, if the Senate decides otherwise, a Constitutional crisis will ensue. Both sides will mobilize in the streets. However, what we will see will not be a lopsided mobilization like Edsa I, II and III.

Alongside the street confrontations will be the spectre of civil war.

As I have pointed out repeatedly, there are some major differences between the present situation and EDSA’s I & II:

(a) Unlike at the time of both EDSA’s I & II, there is no more Cardinal Sin;

(b) The Archdiocese of Manila has been broken up into one Archdiocese and several Dioceses.

(c) The perception before was that the Cardinal Archbishop of Manila was the leader of the entire Philippine Catholic Church.

The nine and a half years of the GMA Presidency educated us on the leadership dynamics of the Roman Catholic Church in the Philippines.

(d) The Church leaders who have been the most vocal against or about Impeachment are those who were the most vocal against GMA. The pro – GMA bishops have been relatively quiet;

(e) The Catholic Church is at odds with PNoy and the Lower House over the RH bill. It is still hurting from the PCSO’s SUV expose which turned out to be a big lie;

(f) Both EDSA’s I & II were against an incumbent president. Now, they are trying to oust a Supreme Court Chief Justice who does not command an AFP or PNP. He heads a Judiciary that is by design relatively passive but which has become uncustomarily active.

In both Edsa I and II, the INK was aligned with the ousted presidents, Marcos and Estrada. Now, it is perceived to be sympathetic to Corona.

The decision of the Senate impeachment court on whether to obey or disobey the TRO will be very crucial.

If PS Bank President Garcia is crucified this afternoon, a trigger may be provided for the other side. The paradigm of People Power may change from ouster and replacement to one of stalling, stopping and gridlock.

On top of a Constitutional crisis, we may have economic depression and stagnation.

Let our politicians beware! Those who grandstanded will earn the ire of the people as well as be blamed by the organized churches. The 2013 elections are just around the corner!