Coup d'état in the Senate?

YESTERDAY, TODAY & TOMORROW
Linggoy Alcuaz
1/23-29/2012



Last Monday, January 16, 2012, Chief Justice Renato “Rene” Coronado Corona faced the Senate sitting as Impeachment Court. However, it is not only his Trial.

The Senate, the House, the P-Noy Aquino Administration, the Armed Forces and the Police, the Mass, as well as the People as Public Opinion, will also undergo their own Trials.

On the eve of the opening of the Trial, a Corona Resignation, as prayed for by P-Noy and his allies, did not happen.

Coup d’état: Senate to Palace
There was instead, a Coup Plot against Senator Juan Ponce Enrile. He has been the Senate President since Manny Villar was ousted in September of 2008.

The Candidate for Senate President of the Plot was Senator Franklin Drilon.

The cost or price of such maneuvers and plots is the enmity of Enrile and his allies, Senators Gregorio Honasan, Jinggoy Estrada and, maybe, even Koko Pimentel.

It is easier to capture the 12 votes needed to win the Senate Presidency than to muster the 16 votes needed to convict Corona.

Making an enemy of Enrile means that the Aquino Administration will not be able to get 16 Senators.

Both a failed as well as a successful Coup now in the Senate may mean or lead to a Palace Coup against the Constitution later on, if and when Corona is acquitted short of the necessary 16 votes.

Drilon, Carpio and PET
Drilon took up law at the UP. He is a member of the Sigma Rho Fraternity.

Senior Associate Justice Antonio Tirol Carpio also took up law at the UP and belongs to the same Fraternity.

He is also a founding partner of the “Firm”, or Carpio, Villaraza and Cruz.

The latter supported Mar Araneta Roxas as a Presidentiable in 2009 and, later, as a Vice Presidential Candidate in the May 10, 2010.

Carpio is the candidate for Chief Justice of the Balay and Liberal faction of the Aquinio Administration.

Roxas has a pending protest against Vice President Jejomar Cabauatan Binay before the Presidential Electoral Tribunal which is composed of the Supreme Court as a whole.

The Chairman of the PET is the Chief Justice.

Corona and Binay
Incumbent Chief Justice Corona studied at the Ateneo from Grade School to High School to College and up to Law School. He is a member of the Utopia Fraternity.

He can be expected to be neutral between the two parties.

Binay studied College and Law at the UP. He is a member of the Alpha Phi Omega (APO) Fraternity.

Sending GMA to jail as well as getting rid of Corona is turning out to be a Pandora’s Box not only for P-Noy but also for all of us Filipinos.

Meanwhile, can life go on for the better?

Or, will we be glued to the formal Impeachment Proceedings at the Senate?

The ‘End All’
Most importantly, can P-Noy debunk the claims made by former President GMA last Thursday, Jan. 12, 2012, at the Manila Hotel regarding the Economy?

Or, is he digging his own grave?

Can the Senate and the House do justice to Corona, Democracy and the Philippines?

Or are the 2013 Elections the end all and be all of this game?

There are 11 Senators who are running for reelection themselves or whose relatives are running in their place.

A vicious cycle
What electoral factor will count the most in influencing their votes at the end of the Trial?

Will the relative popularity of Impeachment and P-Noy as against the unpopularity of GMA and Corona count the most as Sen. Sonny Trillanes seems to be explaining his vote in advance?

Will Pork Barrel and other Administration bribes count as much with the Senators as they did with the Congressmen?

Will the presence of the Iglesia ni Kristo on Corona’s side weigh in?

Will the absence of Cardinal Sin’s successor, Archbishop Chito Tagle, and the Roman Catholic Church’s Hierarchy, the CBCP, on the side of P-Noy and Impeachment weigh at all?

Can the Mass Media and Public Opinion still perform their roles?

Or, are they both caught in a giant vicious circle?

Triple, double lose
The blind leading the blind! One mob leading another mob!

Many people believe that Corona is the one with the most to lose in this game.

Many believe that he is in a lose–lose situation. Yes, that may be very true.

However, the whole country may be in a lose–lose–lose situation.

Why the triple lose rather than just a double lose situation?

Three possible outcomes
As we explained in our column two weeks ago, there are three possible outcomes of a completed Impeachment process.

The first is an acquittal by the Majority – 12 or more votes.

The second is a conviction by 16 or more votes.

There is a more dangerous third option.

Twelve to 15 Senators vote for conviction – a simple majority of the Senate but not enough to satisfy the Constitution’s requirement of 16 votes.

However, P-Noy will accept nothing short of a Constitutional Conviction.

Because of his character flaws, he will concentrate on securing this.

Throughout the Trial, he will not be able to concentrate on other more important things.

He will remain focused on Corona with the jaws of a crocodile or hyena that has caught and bitten live game for their food.

Extraordinary economic woes
Meanwhile, the Economy will be allowed to linger.

Any extraordinary additional problem will throw it into a tailspin.

An Iranian blockade of the Straits of Hormuz will block a substantial portion of the world’s oil supply and send prices through the roof.

What contingency plans does P-Noy have for such an eventuality?

However, even if P-Noy gets what he wants out of Corona’s Impeachment Conviction, it does not assure us of political peace and economic growth.

What it will give us is an imbalanced democracy under the control of an imbalanced leader.

And if that imbalanced President does not get what he wants with Plan A, he will try his Plan B – a Palace Coup against Corona, the Senate Verdict and the Constitution!