It's the economy!

YESTERDAY, TODAY & TOMORROW
Linggoy Alcuaz
6/6-12/2011



DOTC Secretary Ping de Jesus’s resignation (effective June 30) last week is a major step in P-Noy’s continuing fall.

If followed by one or two more resignations of the same type of high-ranking official (e.g. DPWH Sec. Babes Singson) as Ping, it may shake the confidence of the business elite in the future of our economy.

The relationship between economy and politics in the Philippines is different from that obtaining in the United Kingdom or the USA. Do you remember British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, President George Bush, Sr. and President William “Bill” Clinton? All three of them had their fates determined by the economy. After defending the United Kingdom in the Battle of Britain from Hitler’s aggression and going on to defeating the Axis Powers and winning World War II, Churchill lost the first peacetime elections.

After winning the Iraq Kuwait War of 1990-91, the Senior George Bush (Republican) lost the 1992 Presidential Elections to Bill Clinton (Democrat). Unlike Clinton and his own son who served two four year terms, Bush, Sr. served only one four year term (1988-1992) as President. He served two terms as the Vice President of President Ronald Reagan (1980-1988).

On the other hand, Bill Clinton won re-election in 1996 after several scandals and an Impeachment Trial. Remember that aside from his affair with Monica Lewinsky, a White House apprentice, Clinton was accused of sex scandals as Arkansas Governor. His wife and her law firm were accused of several cases conflict of interest. The explanation to all of these was and still is, “It’s the Economy, Stupid”.

Filipino Voters are Different
Simply put, for the British voters in the mid-forties and the American voters in the nineties, their pocketbooks were more important than military victories or sex scandals.

In the Philippines, Filipino voters are very different.

From 1983 to 1986, they took to the streets and voted for Cory because they believed that the Marcos’s had had Ninoy assassinated. They wanted to get rid of Marcos, the Dictator, the “Padrino” of Cronies and the owner of Fake Medals and Hidden Wealth.

Eventually, the Fall of the Peso and our Debt Default sealed his Fate. However, without Ninoy’s Martyrdom, it would have taken much much longer to get rid of Marcos.

FVR, Erap, FPJ
In 1992, they voted for Ramos because they believed that he could save us from rightwing coups, left wing revolutions and Muslim secession. They did not know what abilities he had as an Economic Manager.

Eventually, they may associate his Presidency more with Economic Boom than Peace with Communist, Military and Muslim Rebels. However, they did not make a Cha-cha possible so that he could either have term extension or reelection.

They voted for Erap because they believed that he was “Para sa Mahirap” and not necessarily because they believed that he was capable of raising them up from their “Mahirap” status.

Again in 2004, they voted for FPJ, not knowing what abilities he had aside from being good, honest and pro-poor. Very few voted for Lakas-NUCD-UMDJKampi candidate and Speaker Joe de Venecia. He and Promdi Presidential candidate Lito Osmeña probably had more economic proposals and solutions than Erap.

GMA, The Economist
Of all the post EDSA I Presidential Candidates and Victors, GMA is the most identified and perceived as an Economist.

But if we go by the Opinion Surveys rather than the elections that she allegedly cheated, we see her survey numbers consistently going down. These were affected more by corruption scandals than by economic management.

From our limited economic experience and knowledge, we perceived the following: The death, wake and funeral of Cory Aquino was a big almost spontaneous rebirth of hope;

The decision of then Senator Benigno Simeon Aquino III on Wednesday, September 9 at the Club Filipino to run for President converted this new hope into a strong unstoppable and uncheatable force;

This in turn was transformed into a perception of forthcoming stability and the return of economic confidence;

These turned concrete even before the elections with the perception that GMA’s candidate was too weak and that the Administration could no longer cheap enough in order to win;

These perceptions solidified with the Day After Election Results of May 11, 2010, and For the past year Economic Confidence and Stability have survived all the personal and political misfortunes and mistakes of P-Noy, his Barkada and the whole Aquino Administration.


Domino Effect
So that is the big difference among the UK, the USA and the Philippines.

The Economy did not save P-Noy from his downward spiral.

Now, the economy may finally catch up with the downward trend of our politics. However, it took the resignation of Sec. Jose Ping de Jesus to threaten to undo the economy. Now, one or two more similar resignations and we get the “domino” effect.

The Makati Business Elite are watching P-Noy. They think that they are connected to Cory in a special way. They think that they made both P-Noy’s candidacy as well as his victory. Their investments in an Aquino Administration are represented by Technocrats like Ping. His resignation means that their equity is no longer well represented.

This comes on top of a reduction in the growth of our Gross Domestic Product for the First Quarter of the Year to a mere 4.9 % from the much higher 8.9 % a year ago.

The economic slowdown is caused by P-Noy’s slowness.


A certain Octavio Alvarez
Last week, Tuesday, the Peace and Justice Movement, held a Press Conference to denounce the filing of sedition/inciting to sedition charges before the Pasig City Fiscal against its convenors, Lauro Vizconde, Dante Jimenez, Fr. Roberto Reyes, and Atty. Ferdinand Topacio.

These charges arose from statements made by the latter in reaction to the acquittal of Hubert Webb of the Vizconde massacre.

What is interesting is the complainant. He is a certain Octavio Alvarez of the Bantay Bayan Hotline on DWIZ and the Citizen’s Foundation for the Prevention of Crimes and Injustices.

He claims to be a taxpayer and a law abiding citizen. We assume that he is now a private citizen.

Metrocom ini!
When I first met him, he was a PC Metrocom Captain and chief of the Metrocom Police Intelligence Service (MPIS), the predecessor of Col. Rolando Abadilla’s Metrocom Intelligence and Security Group (MISG). It was the afternoon of January 13, 1971.

I was driving our two-tone yellow and black 1965 Ford Taunus 17m southeast on Juan Luna St., Paco, Manila. I had come from a rally of the MDP at the Plaza Miranda and had two passengers on my front bench seat.They were SDK head Sixto Carlos and his girlfriend Christine Ebro.

Alvarez was in the right front seat of one of two unmarked blue Toyota sedans loaded with eight Intelligence Operatives with eight Colt 45s and several 30 cal. Carbines. They accosted me, flagged me down, drew parallel to my car and pointed a .45 at me.

He shot at us
My two passengers disappeared under my car’s dashboard. I stepped on the gas and fled towards the Paco Cemetery, turned right on Padre Faura, crossed Taft Ave. (where a tricycle bumped my car and distracted the chasing Metrocoms.) and entered the Ateneo Padre Faura compound.

They were shooting all the way right till the end of the parking lot where they ran out of ammo. We had several hundred jeepney drivers waiting in the parking lot. They had accompanied their 50 or so leaders who were meeting with, among others, future Senator and Governor Joey Lina.

So, we beat up the two car loads of Metrocom plainclothes troopers with rocks and sticks until the Metrocom’s Reaction Strike Force (RSF) composed of six truck loads of anti-riot troops rescued them.

.357 owner
The next time I met him between 1975 and 1981, he was a Major and the Executive Director of the Task Force Anti-Gambling (TFAG). I was the Executive Vice President of Dealer of Telecommunications equipment and we were selling mobile radios to the PC, AFP and others, including the TFAG.

The third time I ran across him was between 1983 and 1985.

He happened to be the listed owner or assignee of a .357 cal. Magnum revolver which was one of two guns with the same serial number, one of which was the gun used to assassinate Ninoy Aquino.

Hindi pinatulan ni Erap
Last Tuesday and tomorrow, 2 pm, Tuesday, there are preliminary investigations of the above case at the Pasig City Fiscal’s office.

I think I know what Alvarez’s gimmick is.

In April of 2000, a certain retired NBI Atty. Reyes filed a similar sedition or inciting to sedition case against me because of the Exclamation Point (!) sticker that we used against Erap.

They file on their own and then approach our enemies and try to make money out of them.

Sorry for Atty. Reyes. “Hindi siya pinatulan ni Erap!” He tried to talk to me to compromise but I retorted, “Meet you in Court”.