Sulo ng Pilipino

Monday, April 6, 2015

After AIIB, BRICS' NDB

After AIIB, BRICS’ NDB

(Herman Tiu Laurel / DieHard III / The Daily Tribune / 04-06-2015 MON)

For two weeks the world watched as history shifted inexorably from the Unipolar World, i.e. one centered and controlled from Washington, to the Multipolar World with global power being distributed to other centers.

The China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) saw traditional European and Asian allies of Washington (except Japan, so far) rushing to beat the deadline to join the institution despite pressure and appeals from the US to shun the new international bank seen as competing with the US-sponsored International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), and Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Prominent US allies that have joined the AIIB after overcoming a tense standout with Washington are Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and South Korea. The Philippines, surprisingly, had joined even earlier without opposition from the US, which probably considered its most canine ally unimportant enough to bother with.

Indeed, the fact that financial and economic heavyweights long considered stalwarts of the Western Alliance have joined the AIIB over Washington’s objections was a shocker to the US and should serve as a wake-up call to the Philippines. But the AIIB is just the beginning of the end of the Unipolar World.

The start of April ushered in the realization of the New Development Bank (NDB) that sprung from the embryonic BRICS Bank proposed in previous BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summits.

Russia this week announced its ratification of its NDB participation, with a Russian to head the bank that will be headquartered in Shanghai.

The NDB will be capitalized at $100 billion. But South African Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies says the bank’s capital may not be held in US dollars--in keeping with the BRICS aim to wean the world away from control of the dollar.

Aside from bank capitalization, another $100 billion currency pool, with $50 billion coming from China, is set up to help any of the BRICS countries tide over liquidity crises as often happens when an emerging economy comes under Western financial attack, as in the 1998 Asian Contagion when George Soros ravaged the Thai baht.

Slowly, the new international world order--one that is fairer and more democratic--comes into being. This was not by war, as was the experience during the Cold War led by the USSR that, in turn, led to its demise. Rather, this new international order, the Multipolar World, is being established by financial and economic diversification.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin says of this, “BRICS are coordinating their policies on key international issues ever more closely, and are playing an active part in shaping a multi-polar world order and developing modern models for the world’s financial and trading systems…”

The NDB of the BRICS is expected to be headed by Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who has been quoted saying, “We want to move away from the same old, same old way of doing things. What currencies the capital will be held in is something that will be part of the Sherpa (as in Mt. Everest climbing guides) process with the pace set by Brazil, but we expect substantive progress by the time of the next BRICS summit in Russia…”

Russia’s partner in all these is China, which provides at least half the capital for these new Multipolar World projects.

As change continues to beckon and even as the staunchest Western allies are accepting its inevitability, riding on the crest of the new wave, Philippine foreign and financial policies continue to hew to Cold War loyalties, which churn out propaganda still antipathetic or hostile to China, Russia, and the other BRICS countries.

We cannot expect any change while an incorrigible Western patsy such as BS Aquino is still in charge. The Filipino nation, especially its intelligentsia, must start the change and educate the rest of society if it wants to be part of the Multipolar World.

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Remember to be silent and reflect upon yourself from time to time.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Flabbergasting Aquino-DFA move.

(Herman Tiu Laurel/ DieHard III/ Tribune column for 4-1-2015 Wednesday)

Was that the DFA’s (Department of Foreign Affairs) way of building up to an April Fools Day prank, the note verbale handed by the department to visitng Malaysian Defense Minister Dato Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein offering to downgrade the Philippines’ claim to Sabah in exchange for support for the Philippines’ case against China on the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea (SCS/WPs) dispute at the ITLOS (International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea). What was the response of the Malaysian government?

The headlines just days before April Fool’s Day said it all “Malaysia FM denies Philippines’ claim to Sabah”. Datuk Seri Anifah Aman retorted to the report saying asking, "What claim? We never recognize any claim, [so] the note is irrelevant," as quoted from the Malaysian news portal The Rakyat Post. But, of course, the validity and legitimacy to the Philippines’ claim to Sabah is unshakeable with every requisite proof, historical or documentary, legal and jurisprudence, and short only of actual physical possession.

The Philippines’ possession of Sabah was pre-empted by the 1946 thieving annexation of Sabah by the British Crown, making it a British colony to hand over to its ward Malaysia. This was done despite British North Borneo High Court Chief Justice C.L.C. MaCaskie’s 1939 decision stating the Philippines’ as “successor in sovereignty” of the Sultan of Sulu. Former Philippine Permanent Representative to the United Nations Lauro Baja Jr. is quoted by newspapers saying the Philippines’ claim to Sabah will be “prejudiced” if Malaysia grants the DFA’s request.

Baja said, “We are in effect withdrawing our objection to Malaysia’s claim of ownership to Sabah,… Even if we are not formally dropping the Sabah claim, it (the withdrawal of the protest) can be used as evidence against our claim.” Like experts and common sensed observers, Baja sees the Philippine claim on Sabah as much stronger than its claim on the Spratly islands disputed with that of China. Besides Sabah generates billions of dollars in annual revenues from oil and gas while prospects in the disputed SCS/WPS islands are still speculative.

It seems DFA under BS Aquino’s handpicked secretary Albert Del Rosario - aptly named “Super Amboy aka Giant Smiley of a foreign secretary” by veteran diplomat and Malaya newspaper’s resident DFA monitor Rey O. Arcilla - will do anything to spit at China even if the spit flies back right smack against the Philippines’ face. The same newspaper’s Ellen Tordesillas asks if the DFA compromise proposal to Malaysia has the approval of BS Aquino, but isn’t that assumed given the carte blanche the Giant Smiley always gets when it comes to spiting China?

While the whole world is joining China’s bandwagon of “trade-trade” and not “war-war”, jumping on the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Malaysia among the first to join), the Silk Road Economic Belt, the Maritime Silk Road - the Philippines is stuck in its policy of antagonizing China on a matter that China since 1989 has already offered to talk about in a neighbourly manner so both can share, 50/50, benefits and security. But no, Aquino and Del Rosario want all of West Philippine Sea while giving away Sabah ending up with zero.

What is the Philippines’ to do about China’s building on the disputed SCS/WPS islands? We have always attributed this to U.S. and Philippines’ hostile signals. I am happy to note the Malaya’s veteran diplomat-writer’s similar view: “Why did China choose to build military garrisons on our islets in the WPS?… the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Arrangement (EDCA) that we foolishly entered into with the US. China merely wants to ensure that the US and her allies will not be able to dominate the entire WPS/South China Sea to her disadvantage.”

The Cold War vintage foreign policy of BS Aquino and the “Super Amboy aka Giant Smiley” DFA secretary Albert del Rosario is causing the Philippines to lag behind in foreign policy and international relations that is resulting in economic stagnation and retrogression, not to mention the self-inflicted insults that the DFA commits in its vain attempt to harm the universally friendly China which has sought no enemy in the decades past and has succeeded in creating countless friends on today’s continents all over the world.

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Monday, March 30, 2015

USIP calls the Big Guns

USIP calls the Big Guns

(Herman Tiu Laurel / DieHard III / The Daily Tribune / 03-30-2015 MON)

Why BS Aquino is still so bullheaded in pushing the BangsaMoro Basic Law (BBL) despite the collapse of his public trust and approval ratings and in the face of his Senate supporters urging him to wait for a new administration in about a year’s time continues to baffle the mind. Neither can he be presumed to be following the logic of peace, since even the peace panel officials on both sides have admitted: Signing the BBL would not stop other rebel groups and minorities from using force to attain their own objectives. What or who then can exert so much pressure as to compel a supposed president to act so adversely against his own interest and legacy?

One has to look back to the history of the BBL to understand. Here we can recall the near total demise of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) after President Joseph Estrada demolished its network of rebel camps, including its Camp Abubakar headquarters. That forced its leader Hashim Salamat to flee to the coddling arms of his sponsors in Kuala Lumpur.

In desperation, Salamat wrote a plea in 2003 (no doubt with Malaysian and British prodding) to then US President George W. Bush--an appeal that led to what G. Eugene Martin and Astrid S. Tuminez wrote as a report in Feb. 1, 2008, which we quote below:

“’Toward Peace in the Southern Philippines,’ A Summary and Assessment of the USIP (United States Institute for Peace--in which Board sits the CIA, NSA, et al.) Philippine Facilitation Project, 2003-2007… In 2003, the US Department of State asked USIP to undertake a project to expedite a peace agreement between the two sides (MILF and Government of the Philippines)… US policymakers must give higher priority to the… negotiations … When an agreement is reached… (this will) accomplish US foreign policy goals… (And because) of its ability to deal with non-state actors and sensitive issues underlying civil conflict, USIP can be a useful instrument for advancing US interests.”

Who could make the EU and Japan get involved, sponsoring seminars, contributing funds, and inviting BS Aquino to meet MILF representatives in Tokyo, on a purely Philippine domestic issue? Only be the US could.

But even the internationalization of the issue could not convince the Filipino people on the BBL, especially after the Mamasapano barbarity of the MILF and the incoherence of all the pro-BBL Filipino patsies and their MILF cohorts in defending the BBL proposal.

So it’s time for the “non-state actors” to be called in to exercise “soft power” on the Filipino public to sell the BBL.

Last Friday, BS Aquino formed a “peace council” to “educate the public on (the) proposed BBL,” naming Cardinal Tagle, Big Business tycoon Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, ex-Chief Justice Hilario Davide, and BS Aquino in-law Ambassador Howard Dee. Only two really count, representing powerful social institutions that twice helped oust presidents.

In 1986, Cardinal Sin called his flock to Edsa I as Don Jaime Zobel de Ayala opened Shell’s gasoline spigots for Butz Aquino’s nationwide protest caravans. In 2001, Sin convened Edsa II rallies against Estrada that saw Don Jaime dancing awkwardly as the elite crowd proclaimed Gloria Arroyo president.

Cardinal Tagle now sits in Sin’s stead while Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala (JAZA) sits at the helm of the Makati Business Club (MBC). Both represent, by historical and business ties, the Philippines’ umbilical cord to Western civilization and economic subsidiarity.

On the BBL, these Big Guns among the “non-state actors” are now called in to be in the firing line, as they were when the fledgling independent Asian leader Ferdinand Marcos spread his wings and opened relations with the Socialist World (among other issues) and Erap pushed to establish a truly sovereign security policy for Mindanao.

Calling in these Big Guns reflects the primordial importance of the BBL to US “foreign policy goals” in Asia. In this era of the rise of China, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank), etc., 70 years of US hegemony in this part of the world is undoubtedly threatened.

The US is thus racing against time and history to restore its preeminence in Asia by way of the “Asia Pivot” that would see 60 percent of its military forces deployed to the region--and the BBL obviously plays a key role in this.

But given that the pervasive interference of the US that led to the Mamasapano tragedy is as much to blame as BS Aquino is in the BBL debacle, they are now tapping the “non-state” actors to assuage the nation.

Will the Filipino people have their legs pulled again by these Big Guns? Let’s hope not. They should, by now, have sufficiently learned from the endless betrayals they have experienced--from Edsa I to Edsa II and, now, the Mamasapano massacre.